YETT  Young Experts’ Think Tank

scott e. goddard



The caucasus:

stormy past, bumpy future?



Introducton                  page 3

Complications and future importance of the Trans-Caucasian region


section I                            page 5

History of the Caucasus & the Tsarist Russian invasion


section II                           page 7

Pre-Soviet Caucasus & the Christian dynamic


section III                         page 9

Peculiarities of Tsarist Russian domination


section IV                         page 11

Pre-Soviet Georgia – proclivities toward socialism


section V                           page 13

Pre-Soviet Azerbaijan – proclivities toward socialism


section VI                         page 15

Pre-Soviet Armenia – proclivities toward socialism


section VII                                    page 16

Collapse of the Soviet Union


section VIII                                  page 18

Post-Soviet Georgia: political instability + economoics


section IX                         page 20

Post-Soviet Azerbaijan: economics


section X                           page 21

Post-Soviet Armenia: economics


section XI                         page 22

How does the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict impact international and energy security?


section XII                                    page 23

The Future of the Caucasus: bright or foreboding? 


section XIII                                  page 24





The Caucasus is an extremely complex and diverse region between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea, and to the south of Russia Proper.  The Caucasus mountains have given to the region some very distinctive and complex characteristics.  It is home to many different ethnic groups, including:

Abkhazi, Circassian, Georigan, Armenian, Dagestani, Greek, Iranian, Turkic and Mongolic peoples.  In the state of Georgia, for example, there are four distinct ethnic groups represented, with the majority being Georgian, but with significant minorities of Greeks, Armenians and Iranians.  Azerbaijan is populated mainly by Azeris (Caucasian Albanians[1]), but it also combines several ethno-linguistic minority groups such as the Armenians (this will be dealt with in a subsequent chapters), Iranians and Circassians.  Armenia consists of Armenians as the dominant ethnic group, small pockets of Greeks and a relatively large concentration of Azeris in the south of the country.  While it is true that the Caucasus region is an unstable area, it is also an area of great promise in that it (especially Azerbaijan) are said to sit  atop an extremely large store of oil and natural gas.  Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, it has become an increasingly diverse and internationally important region, not least because the oil supply in the Middle East will some day run out.  There are proven estimates of oil in the Transcaucasia region and Central Aia ranging from 15-40 billion barrels, with the potential of between 75 and 150 billion barrels more.  Analysts have said that eventually this area could produce an equivalent magnitude as the North Sea. 


The Caucasus region has a long history of being exploited, primarily by Soviet Union for oil.  By 1940, Azerbaijan accounted for nearly 70% of all the Soviet oil production. However, some of the deposits were known to the Soviet Union were in extremely difficult areas to access.  Due to the fact that the necessary technology was not available to the Soviet Union, and the fact that Baku, the Azerbaijani oil capital, was extremely susceptible to attack during World War II, and the subsequent discovery of oil in the Volga-Urals and the Siberian regions of Russia Proper, exploration and exploitation of the trans-Caucasus region was halted.  The breakup of the Soviet Union meant initial instability, but there is a bright future ahead with further opportunities for the liberalisation of investment regimes.  Despite initial instability in some countries which may oblige potential investors to reinvest themselves in business negotiations with the new governing bodies, as they change and find themselves, of the newly formed states.  In some cases this process will the repeated several times as the governments in the region changed.  However, by the late 1990s, the region was relatively stable politically, and a number of countries have made significant progress in extracting investment to their oil and gas sectors from international and national investors.  While they are significant reserves in either in Armenia or Georgia, the political stability of these two states is vital to the continued production and exportation of oil and found in the Azeri oilfields.[2]  The non-oil states would benefit from this by charging transportation fees.


This essay will deal with the problems and possibilities that will be confronted by these states as they move into the future.  In order to adequately understand the possible futures of these states, it will be necessary to examine some of the history of this region so as to better understand the social constructions and proclivities of the peoples of the Caucasus.  Only then will it be possible to forecast the future ramifications of increased oil investment on the stability of the Azeri, Armenian and Georgian peoples.


section I

The Caucasus is essentially a land of mountains, the inhabitants of which, with the exception of and the Christian population, were essentially mountain dwelling peoples.  It has been the determining factor for the genesis of the Caucasian population.  The peoples of the Caucasus owe the maintenance and perpetuation of their specific characteristics and cultures to the physical features of the region; they also, however, have been historically reliant on the physical security and provided by the Caucasus region for their survival.  The mountainous region has protected these peoples by creating an area where a completely successful invasion is a near impossibility.  It is therefore not an exaggeration to say that these mountains have “made the man;”  in return for this protection, the peoples of the Caucasus are extremely attached to them and will fight with passion, courage, bravery, skill and energy to defend and maintain what has been their homeland for thousands of years.  The terrain of this mountainous region is such that, once entrenched, the Caucasian people are nearly unconquerable.  However, despite this, the height and ruggedness of the great ranges, the plunging depths of the valleys and the vast spread of forest in the area have made it impossible for the Caucasian peoples to unite in a confederation to increase their strength.  Without the strength provided by cooperation, the Caucasian tribes were bound eventually to fall to the cohesive, orderly and overwhelming force of Tsarist Russia in the 19th century, and again to the Soviet Union in the early 20th century.


The Caucasus has been populated since the early Stone Age, but it has only been comparatively recently that the two most significant cultures -- the Armenians and the Georgians -- have acquired truly individual cultures that have been expressed for approximately 1500 years in there own languages.  Both alphabets, Armenian and Georgian, were designed in ecclesiastical circles to promote and strengthen Christianity in these two countries.  As this took place in the early 5th century (two or three generations AD), the written sources of Armenian and Georgian Christianity was of a different character than is traditional Christianity.  While the Ottoman and Persian Empires fought over control of Georgia, the Armenian nation was stuck between the two major powers of Rome and Iran.  It soon occurred that the leader of Armenian nation took over the duties of the patriarch: he began to act as Father of the nation.  Because of its position between the great powers of Syria and Rome, Armenian Christianity was influenced to different degrees and extents by both sides at different times in their history.  Georgians, on the other hand are in even more divided society than Armenians.  Georgia were divided into two fairly distinct areas that, until the 12th century, maintained not completely incompatible religions in the same country.  While Western Armenia had relatively close ties to Constantinople and the church of the  Byzantine Empire, and Central Georgia and border on Armenia, and so Armenian Christian influence is relatively strong in Iberia.


The history of this region is long and extremely complex.  Suffice it to say that because of a constant threat of invasion for armed with the Ottoman and Persian Empires, King Erekle of Georgia, formerly loyal to the Persian Empire, in the late 1700s asked Tsarist Russia for a protection from invasion, and in 1783 Russian suzerainty was established over the Republic of Georgia[3].  In 1795, forces from the Persian Empire invaded Tbilisi, and the Russians, in 1801, deposed King Ereckle and annexed eastern Georgian kingdom and put it under Russian control.  Between 1810 and 1878, Russia and annexed the rest of Georgia.  Therefore, it is not surprising that, due to both the expansionist tendencies of the Russian empire and the need for stability and protection from the Ottoman and Persian Empires, Orthodox Christian Russia invaded and subordinated the rest of the Caucasus[4].



section II

The Armenian experience can be somewhat likened to the experience of the Jews, in that they were extremely divided amongst the Empires, and have also disbursed in a worldwide diaspora.  There are also parallels in that the Armenian people went through periods of massacre (what we today call genocide[5]).  The Armenians were subject to genocide twice in recorded history.  From 1894 to 1895, about 300 000 Armenians were targeted murders by the Ottoman Empire.  This caused an enormous exodus of Armenians from the rounds of the lands of the Ottoman Empire, and closed an extreme dispersal of the Armenians around the world.  Bearing this in mind, this essay will examine some of the intricacies of the Armenian nation.


It was the moment everything changed: No longer in weren't the Georgians come Armenians and Azerbaijanis subject to domination by a foreign, Moslem power, but were finally united with a Christian, European society.  The annexation of the carcasses also meant that Moslem Caucasians were now subject to Christian rule.  This led to the Westernization of the significant portion of the elite of the three countries.  It also created a considerable chasm in both power, wealth and respect between the elite and the majority of the population, which had not, to a significantly been a problem prior to the Russian annexation of the Caucasus.  The westernisation of a significant portion of the Armenian, Georgian and Azerbaijani communities resulted in the creation of an economic and political life in Transcaucasia which led to an intense hostility among those who were traditionally the elite, and those who stranded to work there are ways up the “ladder of success.”  Indeed, the movement from a more hierarchical Padarn of economics to a more meritocratic form of economics soon the latest to the downfall of the traditional Georgian noble elite in Transcaucasia.  Prior to annexation, and the carcasses had been subject to a form of feudalism in which the Georgian aristocracy became the land-owners, while others were forced to work as serfs.  The serfs were meanly of Armenian background, but also included workers from other tribes, while the land owners were in the main Georgians.  This type of feudalism continued for so long that the Georgian land owners became accustomed to not having to work for their money. They were therefore not ready to shift focus and begin to work for their paycheck; neither were they accustomed to this idea, and for this reason it proved to be very difficult for Georgians to compete with the other classes and peoples who knew what it was like to work, and also knew the value of work.  This increased the differentiation between Armenians and Georgians that was already present.  In other words, the idea that power and prestige was attainable by anyone who wanted to try for it was an inflammatory idea, to put it mildly.


However, this increased distinction between Armenians and Georgians, and has allowed the Armenian ethnicity to solidify its belief in itself as a nation.  It is doubtful that this would have happened if there had not been a pre-existing “racial” distinction between the two peoples.  This difference had grown due to the different influences on the Armenian and Georgian peoples throughout history.  The Armenians received influence as regards their form of Christianity from both Syria and Greece.  For example, the Armenian word for priest, monk, sabbath, congregation and preaching were all taken from the Syriac language, whereas words used to refer to a more organised church with an established hierarchy such as bishop and patriarch were taken from the Greek language.  Georgia, more than Armenia, wires significantly divided between the two fairly distinctive areas.  These areas were not united until the 12th century of the Christian era. Western Georgia, which looks to the Black Sea, due to the greater ease and rapidity of sea travel, wires are closely associated to Constantinople and the church of the Byzantine Empire and was Armenia, which was land-locked at that time.  In the Central Georgia -- Iberia to be exact -- Armenians missionaries were active and the borderlands between the two states, and those significantly influenced the type of Christianity that was practice in Central Georgia.  Christianity took a firmer hold in Iberia after the conversion of King Mihran of Iberia in the middle of the fourth century AD.  This diversity of beliefs and has created and divisions within an ethnicity within the same state.  Armenia and Georgia, both of which are Christian states, maintain different belief systems from each other and ardour for weary of the actions of one another.  Perhaps because the Armenian community has been so disbursed for most its history, it is a more accepting of the different ideas and and are the Georgians.  Perhaps this acceptance of differing beliefs and ways of doing things was a contributing factor to the Armenian success in free enterprise business man the Georgians.  However, it is not the intent of in this bother to suggest that all Georgians were unable to make the transformation from a restore Christie to bourgeoisie; this statement would in fact be very untrue.  For example, in Baku, while it is true that a blow to 40 percent of the businesses were on land and operated by Armenians, there was at least 16 percent of businesses were owned and operated by Georgians.


section III


The day that the Soviet empire   annexed Armenia and Azerbaijan in its quest to protect both itself and Georgia from the Ottoman and the Persian Empires, everything changed.  No longer were the nations of the Christian Caucasus any longer in a Moslem dominated world.  It was, instead, the Christian’s turn to dominate the Moslem Caucasus.  The complete annexation of Georgia and and the subsequent conquests of Azerbaijan and Armenia produced in the social and political life of the Caucasian nationalities a series of profound changes which led enter and to the westernisation of significant portions of their elite.  This also led to go westernisation of almost the hall of the peasant population.  When tsarist Russia gained full control of the Caucasus, it began to institute, in combination with tsarist bureaucratic and military rule, the beginnings of a market society Carmen a rudimentary transportation system as well those a communications network.  The increasing use and affordability of transportation and communication led to substantially increased interrelation between the small cities of the Transcaucasia as well as the villages spread throughout the territory.  This greater degree of social communication had a single purpose.  It was meant to create an ethnic cohesion.  However, this growth of relatively easy, cheap and effective communication had an unintended (or perhaps intended) consequence: the fanning of the nationalist flame.


According to Professor Ronald Grigor Suni, and the displacement of the traditional Georgian noble elite in both the economic and political life of Transcaucasia after of the subordination of the region to the tsarist empire turned out to be quite disastrous.  Instead of a graceful abdication, or the realization of the Georgian nobility that they needed to learn how to be more entrepreneurial, there was an enormous backlash against the significant upsurge in the size and strength of the Armenian bourgeoisie.  This was one of the reasons for Georgian nationalism became a backward-looking, nostalgic ideology that tended only to bemoan the disappearance of the status quo ante.  This form of national ideology did not resonate with the Georgians who weren't interested more in obtaining the Council benefits of European Fullest development in order to benefit their countrymen, or among those more radical elements who adopted populist (and leading Marxist) inferiors of a were revolutionary programme conceived at as a multinational "all-Russian” political movement against autocracy[6].  Therefore, the ideology that was most acceptable to the majority of Georgians was that of a Social Democratic (Menshivik, as opposed to Bolshevik) colouring, combined with the nationalist movement.  While the Georgian socialist ideology was quite moderate in order to bring together the greatest number, the Armenian nation was forced to choose between an overtly socialist Caucasian intelligentsia and a more nationalist element predominated in the Ottoman Armenians.  However, because of their ethnic cohesion and character, the Armenians soon came to focus on finding away to bring the desperate am Armenian communities together in a way that takes into account the ongoing adjustments that must be made in order to maintain cohesion and between the two principle Armenian communities.  They were also aware, frown historical experience, that the maintenance of social and political cohesion was vital to the maintenance of a nation.  Fortunately or unfortunately, neither of the ideological flag-bearers and were able to a profound the genocidal destruction of the Anatolian Armenians. 

Often referred to as back word and unenlightened in early references, the Azerbaijanis were gone through cultural and political transformation at the same time and rate at as the other two peoples[7].  When Russian rule was established, perhaps the most important idea that came with it all is that of capitalism.  It was because of the riches of the Baku area that Baku was transformed from a once isolated provincial town into a major industrial centre.  Because Baku was such an opportunity, it attracted a significant amount of Armenian, Russian and foreign capital.  During this time of opening to larger Russia, the other by Jenny community was in the midst of developing a native bourgeoisie and intelligentsia.  This attempt broad a blow to the development of a national press, a secular literature as well as schools .  as well, political parties among the Azerbaijanis was faced with many of the same problems that the Armenian national parties faced.  Was the goal independence or was it autonomy; or is the goal the unity of nationality divided by international borders?  The ideology that was followed by Azeri leaders was not of a particular colour.  It was, on the other hand, and ideology of utility; the Azeris would negotiate and “flow with” whichever Great Power ideology was most favourable.  At times, the Azeris would ally themselves with the Ottoman Turks or the Russians.  They even, at one point, briefly allied themselves with the British.  As the Civil War in Russia began to wind down and the other two powers decided that there was nothing left, the Azeris turned more and more toward the new Russian Empire.  The sovietization of Azerbaijan proceeded relatively quickly as the Azeri orientation was already, from the perspective of power politics, quite pro-Soviet.


section IV


: political and social resistance provided by Georgians to Russian rule was an extremely complex and confused process.  It was one in which pressures for accommodation with the Russian regime were at times greater than those forces that produced resistance to acquiescence.  Also in Georgia, the nationalist movement, which was a reaction to the economic and domination by the Russians and Armenians, was not a the liberation movement.  The Georgians, who were incorporated into the Russian Empire in the first decades of the 19th-century, were at the time and a divided, defeated and inchoate people who, by the late 18th century, faced a virtual extirpation of their race; they were at risk rule was unbearable language and a sense of nationhood.


The social and political integration into the Russian Empire, and so preceding economic stability and and increase in the moulds of communication among Georgians, as well as the introduction of Western education, contributed significantly to the formation of the Georgian nationality, a process that was mostly completed by the late 1800s.  Indeed, former many Georgians, this new national ideology replaced to a significant extent many traditional alliances and and police that predominated in early in Georgia and society; yet also enhanced a socialist ontology.  This and national way to this feeling of nationality was increased by Russian governors trying to eliminate the traditional social and cultural peculiarities of Georgia.  In this search and national feeling was also aided by the imposition of capitalism, which caused a decline in traditional Georgian social relations; the Georgian nobility reacted extremely negatively to unbearable loss of wealth and status as a result of the imposition of capitalism, and the subsequent rise of the Armenian middle class.  This urbanisation was not particularly conducive to these lifestyles that the Georgian people had got and used to all for several centuries, and those many of the weren't unable to adapt to be changing circumstances, thus increasing the feeling of solidarity among the Georgians.  They were on most completely isolated from 1 positions of political and economic power due to this cultural resistance to change.  The effects of these changes also guaranteed, due to the nature and of capital accumulation, that there would be class struggle within the nationalist ideology.  This is because of the stratification of the Georgian ethnicity into rapport, marginalised groups and small, rich and successful groups in the new society.  As this problem was neglected by him the Liberal adherents of the Georgian society, it left open an opportunity for a much more socialist ideology to 1 take hold in the hearts’ and minds’ of the lower classes of Georgians, which constituted in the vast majority of the Georgian people[8].


section V


Azerbaijan is an extremely interesting country, in that it is a Moslem community either of the border lands of the Russian Empire, which at that time was heavily influenced by Orthodox Christianity.  Not only this, but it was soon annexed by the Russian Empire.  The 1828 Russo- Persian Treaty of Turkmenchai finalise the transfer of the semi autonomous republic of Azerbaijan frown the control of the Persian Empire to the control of the Russian Empire.  The ethnic demographics of Azerbaijan at the time of incorporation was relatively diverse.  There was a large majority of Shi'ite as well as a large minority of Sunni Moslems in Russian Azerbaijan. 


These two ideological groups represented relatively distinct political and cultural orientations.  While that she aids persisted in their devotion to Persia, the Sunni's gravitated toward the cultures of Dagestan and to a lesser extent the Ottoman Empire.  When tsarist Russia and went to war with Turkey in 1828 and again between 1853 and 1855, they were able to use Shi'ite volunteers to fight the Ottoman Empire, as well fight against Imam Shamil’s Ghazavat ("holy war") in Dagestan[9]. However, the Sunni's tended to   throw their support behind Imam Shamil, sometimes gone so far as to take up arms against the Russian oppressors.


Despite the Russian Empire’s proclivity is toward divide et impera as a fundamental principle, it was the imposition of Russian control and Russians are that ultimately integrated and changed traditional Azerbaijanis society.  To rule out Tsarist and Soviet Russian domination, a process of the removal of certain particular traditions in Moslem Azerbaijan, took place.  When control of Moslem Azerbaijan was passed from the Persian empire to the Russian Empire, a substantial reform in administrative capacity was introduced; by the late 1850s the bulk of Azerbaijan, which had formerly been controlled by individual khanates (Islamic principalities), and was divided into two gubernii, or provinces.  This allowed for an increase in the ability of Azerbaijanis to work together in order to realise their full potential, both economically and socially.


While this political and social change was extremely important for freedom foundation on which modern society rests, the Azerbaijanis and then were fortunate enough to realise capitalist economic change.  Indeed, by 1870 the country was fully incorporated economically into the Russian market.  Azerbaijan mounted as the chief supplier of rsw materials.  However, economic, social and political development was unequal: there was rural/urban split.  The traditional economy in the rural areas where is changing very slowly and was therefore hampering the overall economic production ability of the country.  This divide, however, did indeed minimise to the extent that Azerbaijan became an integral part of the Soviet Union.



In virtually all societies, we see that an increase in wealth usually is accompanied by an increase in the intellectual output of a society.  The reason for this is that as economic wealth increases for some, that wealth enables them to cogitate time issues that are not directly associated with survival: these people are known as the intelligentsia.  And this Azerbaijani intelligentsia wires influenced gravely by the confluence of both Islamic and European civilizations; in other words, "equality" and structure.  Mirza Fathali Akhundzada, probably the foremost representative of the of the Azeri intelligentsia, was the first to state the importance of "the formation of the literary language comprehensible to the mass region, and secularism as a means of overcoming sectarian division.”[10]  The recognition that it was necessary, in order for the promotion of Azeri benefit, to find a way to overcome the sectarian divide is that would inevitably hamper future economic, social and political integration, and would ultimately lead to the destruction of Azerbaijan.  By the beginning of the 20th-century, sectarian violence had been reduced by such a degree that it was no longer a politically divisive issue, and any “flare-up” could be dealt with calmly and rationally.


Truly beginning in 1895, 10 years before the Russian Revolution, some very rudimentary ideologies word beginning to appear in Azerbaijan.  Pan-Islamism, which speaks to the collective consciousness of the umma (all Moslems), called for the unity of all Islamic People's threatened by the infringements of Europe, began to take hold in Azerbaijan.  Similar to P8n-Islamism, yet much more parochial and xenophobic, was Pan-Turkism, which emphasise the maintenance of the ethnic purity and and identity of the Turkish people.[11]  however, despite this surge of ethnic identification methods, the Azeri people remained the least radicalised ethnic group in the Caucasus.


section VI -- nationalism and socialism in the Armenian rev.


When interrupting Armenian nationalism, it must be remembered that the Armenian nation was quite spread out and lived on the edges (and sometimes in the centre) of multinational Empire's.  This status as a minority necessitated Armenians to strongly maintain and and Hants wherever possible and they are cultural and societal relations with their own people.  Armenian political feeling was influenced greatly by their revolutions in Europe, especially the French Revolution, as well as the revolts in the Balkans.  Much like European the transformation, but perhaps with far more zealousness, the idea of Nation for Armenians was significantly influenced heavily by Armenian Christianity.  Armenians were also united by the fact that they realised the needed to come together in order to maintain ethnic homogeneity. 


The Hunchak Party, which was founded in 1887, and the Dashnak Party, founded in 1890, were both numerical a very weak, and thus were forged to define themselves in relation to Cultural and Revolutionary ideology.  These two groups waged an ideological fans of four other hearts and minds of the Armenian people.  For a many reasons, including cultural and religious, the more moderate brand of socialism was chosen as the national ideology; this ideology was much like that of the Mensheviks in Russia.  It is and implicit realisation that in the Revolution for the establishment of true socialism must come from within and must also be non-violent; the ideology and followers of the ideology realise that a socialist Revolution will take a very one-time to achieve, but it will eventually come to pass.


Because of the fact that the ideology of Mensheviks and was easily taken over by Bolshevism in Russia, and the fact that the Armenian people had chosen an ideology similar to Menshevism, and because of their religion, and the Armenians were quite susceptible to imaginations of the Bolsheviks Party wants it has come to power in the Soviet Union.  The genocide of 300,000 Armenians (from 1894 to 1896)[12] and the hands of the Ottoman Empire also proved to be extremely significant in driving the Armenian people to align with Russia.


The beginning of the Russian Revolution in 1905 also marked the beginning of what became known as the "Tartar-Armenian War.”  Tensions between the two groups had been simmering ever since the economy had been restructured to accommodate capitalism.  This restructuring bribed Azerbaijani Moslems and Christian Armenians together and forced them to interact.  Due to the investment of each people and in their own belief  and systems, there were significant tensions between the two Peoples.  Pico has the Armenians had produced a nationalist movement led by the Dashnaktsutiun Party, its members had formed and Armenian fading forced when the violence of the Revolution swept through Transcaucasia, were and thus better prepared for conflict and and the Azerbaijanis.   The clashes, which began in Baku and radiated outward, continued well in to 1906.  The estimates of the lives last during this conflict and varied widely from 3100 to 10,000[13].  while the amount of the it was not completely lopsided, more Tartars than Armenians were killed.  Because of the losses suffered at the hands of the Dashnakist (Armenian) fighting squads, and Azeri nationalism, for one of the first times in Azeri history, was truly set on fire.










Section VII

Map obtained at:

As it did everywhere in the former Soviet Union, the collapse in 1991 led to significant and possibly lasting changes in the Caucasus; not all of which were beneficial for the immediate future of the international system. While it is true that the collapse of the “Evil Empire,” as Ronald Reagyn was so fond of calling it, the international repercussions stemming from the collapse threaten international human security.  The collapse of the Soviet Union brought with it first a sense of euphoria and joy, and then a profound sense of urgency.  President Boris Yeltsin in a speech told all of the Republics of the former Union to take “all of the sovereignty they could put in their pockets’.”  This statement opened the flood-gates and in what seemed to be overnight, over a dozen separate and diverse Republics declared and gained* their independence.  As this essay has focus is the Caucasus, this essay will ignore the other secessionist states. In accordance with what Yeltsin’s doctrine of grabbing as much sovereignty there was it was possible, Georgia took full advantage, along with Azerbaijan and Armenia.

section VIII

April 9, 1991 was a day th at georgians will never forget.  It is the day of their salvation from tyranny.  Zviad Gamsakhurdia was elected president in May 1991[14]  It is unfortunate that President Gamsakhurdia turned out to have been a much better political agitator and dissident than a President.  Much like a man or woman who makes a good revolutionary may not make a good political leader.  Each of these disciplines takes different skill sets.  Despite this, the independent state of Georgia has survived.  Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia has gone through some very difficult times, both politically and economically. 


In a paper published by Drs. Garibashvili and Kiknadze entitled REPUBLIC OF GEORGIA: state and needs, they might go that since the fault of the Soviet Union, Georgia has than among the worst economic performers[15].  a second discussion paper that I found in that was dated February 22nd, 2002, that stated that the Georgian GDP had ground in 2001 by 4.5 percent year-on-year, and it was expected that the Georgian economy will continue to grow; it was forecast by the International Monetary Fund that the economy would realize a growth of 3.5% in 2002.  This 1% drop in economic productivity is directly linked to the downturn in the international economy, as well as the continued economic problems facing Turky, Georgia’s largest trading partner.  The private sector, which is an extremely important business sector as it tends to produce goods at a cost that makes it competitive and therefore apt to cause the economy to grow, already accounts for 70% of the national GDP. 


The budget adopted by the courtroom parliament for fiscal year 2002 contained a relatively generous allotment for the improvement of the industrial development of a high performance Georgian economy[16].  The goal is to create an investment climate that is as appealing as possible, while stimulating growth in the economy and thus raising the basic standard of living in Georgia.


Economically, Georgia seems to be making some very promising political and structural reforms that could possibly lead to sustainable growth and poverty reduction.  In a similar field of endeavour, the government is promoting the legislative and structural reforms that are needed in order to improve and strengthened the national energy system.  This increase access to energy and will thus drive along the path to further development the economic and social output of the country.  This, however, it is one of the only true windbreaks products with regard to Georgia's track record as it is today.


The Georgian constitution, reactivated by the Georgian Supreme Soviet in 1991 who then amended the 1921 Constitution to allow for the election of a President, explicitely states that "complete freedom of religious belief and confessions as well as the independence of the church from the state" is a right extended to all citizens of the state.  This concept of those separation of church and state differs in the extreme when comparing to the division maintained in the United States of America.  The Georgian constitution recognises that Georgian Orthodox Church has played a role of "special importance in Georgian history.”  On March 30th, 2001, that Georgian parliament began a process of giving to the Georgian Orthodox church and even more important position in Georgian Society.  This new policy will likely killed the Georgian Orthodox Church specialists such  that:    


Its clergy will be exempted from military service.


Chaplains would serve in the military and in prisons.


Orthodox beliefs would be taught in public schools.


The sole right to grant permits for the construction of any Orthodox Church, presumably including Armenia, Georgian and Russian Orthodox churches.


When this camcorder is finalized, the Georgian Orthodox Church will no longer be separate from the state, and from this can be assumed that there will be a limit placed on the freedom to choose what one worships, if they are non-Orthodox.  The majority of Georgians, however, seemed to be of the opinion that belonging to the Georgian Orthodox faith is part and power sole of being a true Georgian.  They tend to few other faiths as a threat to Orthodoxy, and best to the nation as a whole.  According to the New York Times, and there are some who believe that the "Orthodox Church has become increasingly linked to nationalist causes, and some of its followers, and even some of its priests, have been implicated in the attacks on other faiths. Others have been openly critical. In [2002] June, Zurab Tskhovrebadze, a spokesman for the Georgian Patriarch, Ilya II, called the Jehovah's Witnesses 'a fifth column whose activities are directed against Georgia.' "[17]  in June of 2002, Bishop Levan Pirtskhalaishvili, secretary to Patriarch Ilya II of the Georgian Orthodox Church, wrote to the owner of the stadium in Tbilisi asking that it not be rented to a group of Jehovah's Witnesses who wanted to hold a gathering, by noting that it might “arouse the just indignation of a very large portion of society."  This is not a completely unexpected reaction to greater diversity within society, but it does stand as a disturbing trend that may repudiate some of the offences that the Georgian state has made over the last 12 years.


section IX 

Azerbaijan has shown all of the inconsistencies and has gone through all of the problems that accompany the transformation from a command-style economy to a free-market style economy.  However, due to its great stockpiles of natural resources, especially oil, the future of Azerbaijan looks to be relatively bright.  In the four year's spending in 1991 and 1995, Azerbaijan has suffered the sharpest and perhaps the most disastrous economic crises facing ex-Soviet states.  During the four-year window referred to above, the Azeri non-oil heavy industry underwent the transformation through which 70% of Azerbaijan's industrial capacity was erased IL 50 percent of the total economic GDP was also erased.  There are however to all and very important reasons that investors are interested in Azerbaijan.  One of these is obviously it's massive oil and gas resources, but the second is much less tangible: Azerbaijan it is strategically located between the east and the West, and being on an and the Caspian Sea provides a perfect route for trade to flow from East West and vice versa.


In 1995 the Azerbaijan government implemented certain economic and structural reforms that provided for in the cessation and ultimate reversal of the decline in GDP.  The policies made the country look like a better investment to foreign capital, as well as improving and enforcing the legal system.  The government has also, in 2000, implemented a new privatisation law which is meant to government and the further transition of the economy[18].  Now that the government has implemented rules and regulations and that our intended to address indigenously the problems that the Azerbaijan economy faces, and the fact that the growth rate of GDP is no longer native, the future of Azerbaijan in the global economy looks to be quite rosy.


section X

Armenia was the first state in the Commonwealth of independent States to register positive growth: this occurred in 1994.  Surprisingly, Armenia achieved This feat through the radical application of economic reforms suggested by international financial institutions.  It is receiving not only praise for its achievements, but it is also one of the few success cases that I advise can point to and say "the Armenian economy grew because of the policies we told it is to introduce.”  however, this growth came after a a sharp decline which amounted to 50 percent of the GDP and it is clear from our way surprising that Armenia was the first country to post positive growth.  Thus far, Armenian citizens have not been able to enjoy even a modicum of the lifestyle they "enjoyed" under the Soviet Union until

 the late 1990s.[19] 


The Armenian economy has gone through a significant period of instability, yet the future is bright.   In the economy has been forced to diversify to such an extent that this diversity, in effect, creates a sustainable and productive commercial economy as well as being a way to minimise the impacts of the major or minor sector-focused reccesions.  The idea behind a diverse economy is that if one sector were company takes "a beating," either in the other businesses in the sector will pick up the slack war other sectors entirely will pick up the slack created by that devastated company for sector of the economy.


section XI

This conflict. in its most recent form, is only fifteen years old.  However, the historical animosities respecting the disputed regions of Nagorno-Karabakh extend back centuries, and perhaps even millennia.  Each side has what seems to be legitimate claims to the territory.  These two groups are in a strategically important area where stability would be in the best interest of all concerned.  By not redrawing the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the Soviet era, and finalizing where and to whom the Nagorno-Karaback region belonged, Stalin created a very intricate puzzle: who is entitled to Nagorno-Karabakh?  The Armenians claim that they do, but the Azeris have just as valid a claim.  This extremely divisive issue, which has displaced 1.0 – 1.2  million people, almost all of which have taken up residence in tent cities outside the zone of conflict but within Azerbaijan.  Azerbaijan itself has a population of only about 7.5 milloion, so an addition of about 15% of its population is a heavy burden, especially when a state is just starting to get back on its feet after a period of extremely painful readjustment from a command economy to a market-based one.


section XII

The issues faced by the peoples of the Caucasus are so diverse and intricate a puzzle that it is extremely different to even approach, let alone come to a resolution or any conclusion other than “this is a very complex topic that deserves more study.”  This essay has attempted outline some of the variables that have contributed to the current situation in which the Caucasus find themselves.  The problem is not that there is a differentiation of beliefs among different peoples.  It is instead a problem with the balance of power and the distribution of resources.  the difficulties faced by persons trying and failing to adjust to the new norms and modalities of an ever-changing society, as well as the problem of envy.


The problems in the Caucasus seem to be a manifestation of several different variables.  These include things that are indefinable such as culture, temperament and mentality, combined with two things that are inter-related and very basic human desires.  I am referring to Power and Envy.  Where power is the ability to have things done, envy is the want of that power.  Unfortunately, it is not possible to rid oneself of these feelings any more than one could remove ones eye.  The only way to work around these inequalities is to find a way to appreciate and use the different things the other offers.  This is the problem with the state system in general; it does not allow for the two persons to truly work together in order to figure something out that neither could do on their own.  The news articles that this authour has read in his preparation for this essay have been, on-the- whole, quite positive.  Regarding the Nagorno-Karabakh situation, it seems that perhaps the only recourse is to create a confederated state between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the Nagorno-Karabakh region being under joint control.


The interest that these states have in working hard to resolve these significant problems is that they have the opportunity, if they maintain political stability, to reap the rewards.  If the predictions are correct and if there is even half of the amount in the possible reserves as the analysts say, there is a great deal of money to be made.


section XIII


The issues faced by the peoples of the Caucasus are so diverse and intricate a puzzle that it is extremely different to even approach, let alone come to a resolution or any conclusion other than “this is a very complex topic that deserves more study.”  This essay has attempted outline some of the variables that have contributed to the current situation in which the Caucasus find themselves.  The problem is not that there is a differentiation of beliefs among different peoples.  It is instead a problem with the balance of power and the distribution of resources.  the difficulties faced by persons trying and failing to adjust to the new norms and modalities of an ever-changing society, as well as the problem of envy.


The problems in the Caucasus seem to be a manifestation of several different variables.  These include things that are indefinable such as culture, temperament and mentality, combined with two things that are inter-related and very basic human desires.  I am referring to Power and Envy.  Because this problem, and therefore the solution to the problem, hinges on emotional resolution, the only thing outsiders can do is suggest structures that may help the peoples of the Caucasus to resolve their problems themselves.








Azeri ecomomy @


Baddeley, John F.  The Russian Conquest of the Caucasus.


Buchanan, Patrick J.  The Death of the West: How Dying Populations and Immigrant Invasions Imperil Our Country and Civilization.  New York: Thomas Dunne Books.  2002.


Gorbachev, Mikhail S.  Gorbachev: Mandate For Peace, The Charismatic Soviet Leader Speaks To The World.  New York: Paperjacks Ltd.  1987.


Hamidian Massacres.


Hobbes, Thomas.  Leviahan: Parts I & II.  With an introduction by Herbert W Schneider, Professor Emeritus of Philosophy, Columbia University.  New York: The Bobbs-Merrill Company, incorprorated.  1958.


The Honourable speaker.


Interjational Energy Agency in cooperation with the Energy Charter Secretariat.  Caspian Oil and Gas: The Supply Potential of Central Asia and Trans-Caucasia.  Paris: OECD Publications.  1998.


Machiavelli, Niccolo.  The Prince.  Translated with an introduction by Harvey C Manfield.  Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.  1998.


McCauley, Martin.  Banditsm Gangsters and the Mafia: Russia, The Baltic States and the CIS Since 1992.  London: Pearson Education Limited.  2001.


Powers, Samantha.  A Problem From Hell: America in the Age of Genocide.


Remington, Thomas.  Politics in Russia.


Sun Tzu.  The Art of War.  Translated with an introduction by Samuel B Griffith with a forward by BH Liddell Hart.  New York: Oxford University Press.  1971.  This article may be correct, but I was unable to find a date on the report, so I and hesitant to believe it.



[1] Andersen, Andrew (Andreas).  Azer history.

[2] Interjational Energy Agency in cooperation with the Energy Charter Secretariat.  Caspian Oil and Gas: The Supply Potential of Central Asia and Trans-Caucasia.  Paris: OECD Publications.  1998.

[3] Andersen, Andrew (Andreas).  Georgian History in a Nutshell.

[4] Baddeley, John F.  The Russian Conquest of the Caucasus.

[5] Powers, Samantha.  A Problem From Hell: America in the Age of Genocide.




[9] Imam Shamil of Dagestan.


[10] p 212.

[11] this idea sounds suspiciously like Hitler's idea of Germany for the Aryans.

[12] Hamidian Massacres.

[13] National consciousness and political orientations in Azerbaijan.

* In a majority of the new Republics, they indeed gained de jure independence and sosvereignty, but in fact the Russian Federation, the successor to the Soviet Union, still has substantial control over these states.


[15]  This article may be correct, but I was unable to find a date on the report, so I and hesitant to believe it.


[17] Religious intolerance in the republic of georgia.



[18] Azeri ecomomy @